Overview
This consultancy aims to strengthen analytical capacity to support the Government of Maldives in understanding and managing the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of disasters, with a focus on critical infrastructure systems. The outcome will be an improved analytical framework linking disaster-related damages to macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal performance.
Key Responsibilities
- Collect macroeconomic, fiscal, and infrastructure datasets relevant to the Maldives economy.
- Compile historical macroeconomic and fiscal indicators required for macro-fiscal modeling.
- Collect and consolidate data related to critical infrastructure systems, including power, transportation, telecommunications, and water infrastructure.
- Clean, harmonize, and validate datasets to ensure consistency with national macroeconomic statistics and fiscal accounts.
- Develop a structured database to support macro-fiscal modeling.
- Design and develop a macro-fiscal modeling framework suitable for Budget Stress Testing in the Maldives.
- Calibrate the model using historical macroeconomic and fiscal data.
- Establish macroeconomic transmission channels linking infrastructure disruption to macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes.
- Model the impacts of infrastructure disruptions on GDP, sectoral activity, fiscal revenues, government expenditures, fiscal balance, and debt dynamics.
- Integrate disaster loss estimates generated from catastrophe risk modeling into the macro-fiscal model.
- Translate infrastructure damages into macroeconomic shocks affecting production, investment, and fiscal revenues.
- Incorporate disaster scenarios affecting key infrastructure sectors including power, transportation, telecommunications, and water systems.
- Simulate disaster scenarios and assess their impacts on macroeconomic performance and public finances.
Required Experience
- A minimum of ten years of relevant experience in predictive models, macroeconomic models, regressions, time series analysis, development of extreme event scenarios and analysis, statistics is required.
- Work experience in preparing a macroeconomic model for a country is required.
- Work experience in developing macro-fiscal models for countries and integrating CAT model outputs into macro-fiscal models is required.
- Coding experience in Python, R, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Dynare Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Structured query language (SQL), Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheet (CSS), Java, Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) is required.
- Work experience with national government and/or international organizations is desirable.
